Satellite imagery, OSINT mapping and Ukrainian General Staff bulletins reveal four notable shifts on a front that had been largely static since winter:
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1. Kreminna Forest Salient (Luhansk Oblast)
Ukrainian 63rd Mechanised Brigade advanced 3 km along the N‑26 road, retaking the hamlets of Dibrova and Kuzmine on 19–20 April. Copernicus Sentinel‑2 imagery shows fresh scorch marks from controlled burns—Kyiv’s tactic to deny Russian infantry tree‑line cover. Analysts attribute the breakthrough to Russia’s redeployment of two airborne battalions southward (see Avdiivka), thinning defenses.
2. Avdiivka–Ocheretyne Axis (Donetsk)
Conversely, Russian forces continued a grinding push west of captured Avdiivka, seizing Ocheretyne rail junction on 18 April and edging 5–7 km toward Novobakhmutivka. Geolocated videos show T‑90M tanks supported by FPV‑drone swarms overwhelming Ukraine’s trench line. Moscow prioritises this axis to threaten the critical Pokrovsk‑Kostiantynivka supply corridor.
3. Dnieper River Delta Raids (Kherson)
Ukrainian marine detachments expanded their bridgehead at Krynky on the occupied east bank, adding a second pontoon crossing 4 km north at Kozachi Laheri on 21 April. Maxar imagery captures at least six burned Russian MT‑LBs. The objective: drag Russian artillery farther from Mykolaiv and tie down elite VDV units.
4. Robotyne–Verbove Pocket (Zaporizhzhia)
After months of stalemate, Russian 58th Combined‑Arms Army recaptured half of Robotyne’s southern ruins on 17 April. However, Ukrainian Dragon’s‑Teeth fortifications behind the village blunt further armor thrusts. Both sides now trade nightly Lancet‑ and Switchblade‑loitering‑munition strikes, prompting analysts to label the sector “a drone attrition sink.”
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Why the movement now?
1. Thawing terrain: Soil moisture indices fell below 28 % this week, enabling wheeled vehicles.
2. Force rotation: Russia shifted fresh 55th Naval Infantry and 98th Airborne units to Avdiivka, opening gaps elsewhere.
3. Western ammo infusion: Ukraine’s receipt of first Czech‑brokered artillery shells (≈150 k) allowed concentrated fires in Kreminna.
4. Election optics: Moscow eyes symbolic gains before the 9 May Victory Day; Kyiv seeks morale boosts ahead of a crucial U.S. aid vote slated for 29 April.
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